The impact of the U.S. Elections

2016-10-17

According to forecasts and recent polls, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is projected to win the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election against her Republican opponent Donald Trump; estimates1 now indicate a 84% chance of victory for the former, compared to a 16% chance for the latter.

The policy agendas of both candidates are radically different, with Clinton expected to deliver “much of the same” as the Obama Administration, while Trump has promised to implement profound changes if elected. Both candidates, however, agree on the need for fiscal stimulus, namely through infrastructure spending. This could lead to increased Federal budget deficits and debt issuances.

A Republican win may have mixed results for Canada, initially striking a positive note, but facing headwinds over the medium to long term as anti-immigration, anti-trade, and U.S. government debt weigh on the U.S. economy.

A Democratic win is expected to have more muted affects on the Canadian economy given a relatively status quo scenario.

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